Any Which Way

Louisville-Duke isn't just a toss-up game.  It's an "any which way" game.  Just about anything could happen.  I could see a close game, or either team getting blown out.  We've seen both teams get way down in games this year.  Louisville has had more success on the comeback trail than Duke, witnessed in the Big East Championship game against Syracuse.

The common narrative for a Duke win is for Louisville's guards to get in foul trouble.  Siva is very foul prone, as we saw in the Oregon game where he picked up two quick ones and spent most of the first half on the bench.  The other side of the coin with Louisville foul trouble is all the free-throws Duke will shoot.  And if Louisville is down late in the game trying to foul to get back in it, we can pretty much circle Duke's name in our brackets.

As for the Louisville narrative, it involves high pressure defense forcing a lot of turnovers.  Can Cook handle the pressure?  Also, another key is Louisville's bench wearing Duke down in the second half.  And, Louisville does have a pair of quality free-throw shooters in Smith and Siva.

I've seen a ton of these blockbuster match-ups over the years and the only thing I've learned is you never know how they're going to turn out.  After the game, all the pundits will prattle on about how the result was a foregone conclusion.  But the reality is, at this level it's all about guys having career nights, and other guys having bad games at the worst time.  The greatness of sports is an unknown outcome and watching the results play out on the court.

Wichita Ho!

The best part was the scene after the game, watching the Wichita State celebration.  I was glad CBS's announcers turned off their microphones and just let us see the images of a rare mid-major celebrating advancing to the Final Four.  As much as everyone loved Florida Gulf-Coast, it's still a marvel to see a team like Wichita State advance to the promised land of college basketball.

And the best part is, who can say they don't have a chance to actually win it all?  The motto of this year and this tournament should be "Everyone has a shot."

The Games...

Louisville had its first real test of the NCAA Tournament tonight from a good Oregon team.  Oregon's guards were impressive. They mostly neutralized Louisville's turn-them-over-score-in-transition offense, and the Cardinals had to rely on trips to the line to escape.

The Ducks should rise up to elite level next season. I haven't gone over the box scores, but I'm willing to wager tonight's game represented the first time this year Louisville turned the ball over more than their opponent.

If I'm wrong, I'm just another Digger making bad predictions.

Speaking of Digger, I heard he was 0-4 in his predictions for tonight's games.  Digger is like that old man at the track who tells you he just hit a $1,000 exacta, when he lost $8,000 the rest of the day betting.

I've doubted Trey Burke all year.  Every time I happened to turn on a Michigan game, they lost, and he looked bad.  It's not really my fault.  Except I guess I should have watched more of the Wolverines.

I will doubt Burke no longer.  What he did late in the game against Kansas tonight was special.  Most players not named Chitwood don't want the ball late in the game.  Burke, unlike Johnson on KU's side, demanded the ball.

Where does tonight's choke rate in Kansas Jayhawks choking history?  It's probably not in the Top 5.  I'm still wondering how Kansas escaped last week's fate of becoming the first #1 seed to lose to a #16.

Florida looked awful for the first 15 minutes of their game against the other Florida.  But then they turned it up, turned the scoreboard around, and coasted to victory.  I still don't think Florida is as good as their hype all year long.  They capitalized on a very weak SEC.  The Gators are probably the weakest Elite 8 team.

Duke looked soft in the Michigan State game.  But hot 3-point shooting early in the 2nd half set them up for a victory.  How many easy layups did Plumlee miss?  What will he do when he goes up against Louisville's Dieng, a shot-blocker who missed the first meeting between the two schools?  I guess a player looks slightly better getting their junk rejected than if they flat out miss a bunch of point-blank shots.

Kellogg and Nantz Just Don't Get It

After listening to tonight's late-game dialog between Nantz and Kellogg in the Duke-Michigan State game, I'm starting to wonder if the two announcers understand that referees decide when to call fouls, not players.

With about 1:30 left on the clock, down 7, Izzo instructed his team to play defense and try to get a stop.  Kellogg was already in disagreement.  But as the possession played out, one of the refs decided a Spartan player was getting a little too physical with defense, and blew the whistle.

Kellog went nuts.  He just couldn't understand why they decided to foul with 7 seconds left, after running down most of the shot clock.

Here's a clue for you, Clark.  Michigan State didn't decide to foul.  They decided to play tough, straight up, hard-nosed Big Ten style defense.  And the referee, not Izzo or the Spartans players, decided to call a foul.

I'm sure if Izzo knew the ref was going to call a foul with 7 seconds left on the clock he'd have gone ahead and instructed his player to try to foul right away.  But Izzo had no way of knowing.  In Izzo's mind, he was hoping for a shot-clock violation, a turnover, or a bad/missed shot and Spartan rebound.

It just didn't work out in this case.

But please, Kellog, stop trying to sell to me the idea that Izzo didn't decide to foul at 35 seconds left on the shot clock, then suddenly decided to foul with 7 seconds left.  Not only does that strategy make no sense, but suggesting it was Izzo's plan is an insult to Izzo's intelligence.  And we're talking about one of the great basketball minds in the game today.

Bottom line, Nantz and Kellogg just don't understand what's going on with basketball.  Nantz is a golf guy, and Kellogg played the game but he's just not that sharp at strategy.  Clearly.

Bitter Loss for Hoosier Fans...

Syracuse is an interesting team.  They were ranked in the Top 10 most of the year until they had a very late season slump.  They recovered somewhat in the Big East Tournament, and have now rolled on to the Elite 8, in a run reminiscent of Louisville's last season.

At the end of the day, I think we all knew IU didn't have the toughness to beat a team like Syracuse.  It's a bitter, bitter defeat for Hoosier fans who will now have to wait -- who knows how long -- to win another Championship.

Arizona had to pay back one of the wins earlier in the year they pulled from out of nowhere.

I really hate games like Wichita State vs. LaSalle.  Fans love the David vs. Goliath match-ups, like Wichita State-Ohio State on Saturday.  Fans can tolerate watching a Goliath vs. Goliath match-up, like when Duke plays Michigan State tomorrow.  But I think everyone can agree, the worst match-up of them all is David vs. David.  No one wanted to see Wichita State take on LaSalle.  It's no fun watching two little engines that could, when only one of them can.

Minnesota, UCLA Up Against It...

Both are now coachless, rudderless, and Shakaless.

Where did they go wrong?

I'm not sure I'd pull the trigger at a high-profile job (UCLA) or against a high-profile coach (Tubby) without holding a replacement in the bag.

Neither school had someone lined up.  Now they have to sweat it out.  And both may have to settle for a mediocre candidate worse than who they sent packing.

In the distant past, no coach could pass up the opportunity to go to an elite school like UCLA.  But today, coaches can prosper in the hinterlands.  They can get on TV, they can recruit, and they can reach the NCAA Tournament.  Most importantly, if they have a sub-par season, they can have some job security.

Ask Ben Howland about job security.  He took UCLA to the Final Four three times and they sent him to the unemployment time.  Tubby won a National Championship.  But even recently, he had won an NCAA Tournament game and was still eliminated from employment shortly after his team was eliminated from the Big Dance.

When guys like Shaka Smart, Mark Few, and Brad Stevens look at the carnage of contemporary's careers, they have to pause and wonder if the grass is really greener at big time programs.  Why not enjoy life as a big fish in a small pond?  No one will fire Shaka if VCU misses the NCAA Tournament next year.  At UCLA, you never know how itchy the trigger finger is.

Meanwhile, UCLA and Minnesota are now stuck looking at retreads and barely average candidates.  Other powerhouse teams, take note!

2,000 Yards for Dez?

I can't imagine worse news for Dallas Cowboys fans hoping to rebound from last year's bizarre season.

A wide receiver who wants the ball during crunch time is admirable.  But a wide receiver who demands the ball constantly to help back up his trash talking?

Dez Bryant said he can haul in 2,000 yards receiving. Now he has to back his bragging up or face the ridicule of his peers. 

But here's the deal.  Receivers are 100% reliant on quarterbacks for "touches."  Kind of like how centers have to rely on point guards to get them the ball in the NBA.

The team concept already seems out the window in Dallas, and training camp is still months away.  I don't know how you foster a team concept when a guy is busy working on his stats, and blatantly bellowing it to the media during the off-season.

I'm glad J.R. Ewing isn't alive to see this.